(The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is an advisory non-departmental public body established by the UK government
to provide independent economic forecasts and ‘independent’ analysis of the public finances.)
In the OBR’s February report there was a table, unnoticed at the time, which includes an OBR forecast on EU budget contributions up to 2021 based on Treasury information. They show the gross contribution soaring to £22.227 billion by 2021/22 – or £427 million per week. If, as Remainers and statisticians insist, we use only the net contribution – subtracting the UK rebate – then even that soars from £13.952 billion in 2016/7, to £17.405 billion in 2021/2. That is a massive 24.7% increase in 5 years…
But most importantly politically, even the net contribution of £17.405 billion works out at some £335 million per week in 2022.
So even using the contested Remainer methodology, Boris would basically be right in four years if we don’t leave the EU…
OBR forecast of gross contribution, rebate
|Less: UK rebate||-5,244||-5,323||-4,027||-4,335||-4,632||-4,822|