The UK’s demographic transition to an Islamic state by Hugo Jenks- first published in UKIP daily

In what year will the UK have a Muslim majority? And does it really matter anyway? I will probably have passed away by then, so why should I care?

Yes we should care, for the sake of the younger generation. They are already faced with wage compression, impossibility of getting onto the housing ladder if they have nobody to help them, huge debts, no prospect of a decent pension, and lower life expectancy than their parents. Mainstream politicians will discuss these, although without offering any workable solutions. However the most serious problem of all is never discussed. That the younger generation will be living part of their life under Islamic rule in the UK if current demographic trends continue. This is the massive elephant in the room, which nearly every politician is studiously ignoring.

We know that trying to discuss Islam in public will get you arrested. We really have only a few years to sort out the issue, the point of no return is approaching more rapidly than even I thought it was.

The Office of National Statistics had for several years repeatedly revised their population projections upwards. Clearly there is something wrong with their data, their algorithms, or their assumptions, or probably all three.

It is not easy to find all the data to make an accurate calculation, however what has to be calculated are births per women per year, immigration, emigration, and mortality rate. The calculation using actual figures, and guesstimates where the data is obscured, indicates a Muslim majority early in the latter half of this century.

I did that calculation a while ago, however more recently it hit me – there is nothing particularly magical about the 50% threshold. The demographic transition to the point of no return is the significant figure. Freddy Vaccha put me on to this. He noted that there are not many countries with intermediate percentages of Muslim population. It is analogous to a see-saw, (or an electronic device called a “flip-flop”) it has two stable conditions, however the transition between the stable states is rapid.

Here is a graph of all countries in the world whose populations are greater than two million. The vertical axis is the percentage Muslim population, the horizontal axis is the number of countries with that percentage of Muslims.

As we can see, there are not many countries in the world with Muslim percentages between around 20% and 80%, indeed hardly any between 20% and 50%. This is curious. It is as though it is not possible to have a stable population at these percentages. Quite probably as the influence of Islam increases, and the consequent increasing levels of violence and intimidation take their toll, non-Muslims emigrate or are killed, or at least are not able to start or support their own families. There appears to be a rapid demographic transition from predominantly non-Muslim percentages to Muslim majority percentages.

In more detail, there is a change of slope at around 8% and another at around 22%. This latter percentage seems to be the absolute point of no return. From 8% onwards the slope is steep and fairly straight, maybe an increasing number of non-Muslims realise that the situation is hopeless, and are escaping if they can.

Let us focus now on the UK, using census data we can make some projections, of course with the caveat that events will modify these projections. Nevertheless we can get some idea of the trends. The census records show that there was an increase in the Muslim population by a factor of 1.81 times between 2001 and 2011. In this same decade interval the non-Muslim population increased by a factor of 1.05 times. Applying these same scale factors for the decades in the future shows a dramatically increasing Muslim population. The graph is shown here:

Note that eastern Europeans are starting to return to their home countries, and the indigenous birthrate continues to decline, so it is unlikely that the non-Muslim population would continue to increase as shown here. We need to consider two scenarios:

Scenario A – the assumption that the non-Muslim population will continue to increase, albeit at a much lower rate than the Muslim population.

Scenario B – the non-Muslims who can leave will do so. It may be that countries such as Poland and Hungary will continue as safe havens for a few decades after the rest of Europe has fallen to Islam. The following graph shows scenario B with a guesstimate multiplication factor of 0.8 per decade for the non-Muslim population. The percentages are calculated.


This S shaped curve is remarkably similar to the plot of percentage of Muslims by country as shown in the first graph, and this is probably not surprising. The transition is rapid, only a few decades which is not long compared to the duration that a country exists for.

As described earlier, the 8% and the 22% points appear to be significant, the latter being the point of no return. For scenario B for the UK this is around the year 2030, and even in the more optimistic scenario A it is only around 2040, so we have very little time to save ourselves.

We are probably already past the 8% point, or within a few years of it. From now on it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse the situation.

Children born today in the UK will be living in a Muslim majority country by the time they are 30 years old in scenario B, or by their 50th year in scenario A. We only have about 13 years remaining to avert this catastrophe, or else condemn our children or grandchildren to living as Dhimmis under Sharia Law. The time to wake up is right now.


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